Going beyond dangerous

This is possibly one of the best, clearest and easiest to understand no bullshit explanations of global warming I've come ever come across - the situation as is, where we are heading, implications and the immense time pressure we are under to make a change in time.

Professor Kevin Anderson - Climate Change: Going Beyond Dangerous

View another webinar from DFID

Go pour yourself a very stiff drink (yes you will need it) and press play. Watch it to the very end (he does offer a scintilla of hope).
I try to remain hopeful, even in the face of this kind of thing. I try.

The world needs to act. Now.

You too will

end.

Money will not save you
Power will not save you

Your opinions will not safeguard you

Climate on a planetary scale will make no exceptions.

You who lied, misrepresented, twisted, leaned, pushed, forced, influenced, did everything you could to muddy the waters. You and your line won't be exempted. You too, will end.



So it goes.

Durban, a washout

Not that anything really constructive was ever expected to come from Durban, but I had hoped for more than this. Truth be said, the sense of let-down is not as large as Copenhagen, back then I was simply stunned. But realistically, the outcome in Durban is a kind of insanity. These are all informed people who understand the odds and dangers, they have no excuse.

Well, that's it, then. At least Kyoto gets stretched a bit further. And it seems, the best we can hope for, now, is an agreement with legally binding limits around 2015 to take effect no earlier than 2020. This ensures that we are locked into the high end of the climate change spectrum. We should be happy with this????

This is not something I want at all, but I'm now hoping for this list to happen as soon as possible. Really. Sooner rather than later. It's awful to be hoping for catastrophe but I really don't see anything else having an effect. Perhaps a number of whammys, one right after the other, will get people riled enough to demand action without shredding the fabric of our civil society too much. The best outcome would be one where there is so much pressure worldwide, that politicians simply must act, but not so much that it leads to anarchy, chaos and political rigor mortis.

Waiting till 2015/2020 (and that's assuming we don't build in another five to ten years procrastination and nitpicking the details) locks this planet into am ecology where we humans and most current species simply won't be able to survive. That's unacceptable.

I think the odds of this working out just fine, went down astronomically.
I'm 53, I won't see the worst of it. I sometimes watch the neighborhood kids as they run around and play outside, and my heart aches for them. I would not wish any of this on them. I'm sure their parents -were they to fully understand the danger- don't either.

Alarmists?

or very worried scientists?

Fragile

That thin, thin layer is all that keeps us alive.



Earth | Time Lapse View from Space, Fly Over | NASA, ISS from Michael König on Vimeo.

I'm not scared of dying

It's a given - it will happen some day. Some vital body part will stop functioning and I will cease to exist. It bums me out, yes. I feel vaguely wronged that I probably won't be around to see two suns in the sky. Or what happens to humankind, what happens to life in general on this planet and -if there still is life capable of planning and executing a planetary escape- what will happen when our sun dies and swallows up this beautiful planet of ours. And of course on a personal level, I wonder what will happen to my own line - what will be the end result of all my ancestors' brave survival and reproduction? Will it die out, or carry on?
(Selfishly, of course, I hope it will go on and produce wondrous human beings in an endless progression)

That does not worry me, aside from a hope that my end will be painless.

No, what worries me, is this: Europe's ageing population problem. I am supremely pissed that we are in this situation! After all, it's not a surprise: governments and financial people have known all along that this was coming. All these old people did not just fall out of the sky! As for "we are all getting older", I say nonsense. My forefathers often lived up to hundred and beyond (strong stock from Zeeland, Gouda and Rotterdam), as did many others from those days. So this is nothing new. No, this is a result of a world war skewing European demographics and everyone in politics knew about it, or should have - Sociology and Actuarial sciences are not new! We had many golden years where there was more money than people knew what to do with. Where were our prudent politicians, storing up for the lean years? They were enriching themselves and not planning further than the next election cycle!! Dammit, this is what politicians should be doing: planning for a continuous healthy and secure state! They fell down on the job, and they still are falling down on the job.

Because:

Intersecting this wrinkly nightmare, comes the down slope of peak oil. Energy is about to become very expensive. We could have been okay, had there been prudent planning (sound familiar?). Again, our gas reserves were squandered in the times of plenty as if they would never run out, instead of following a sensible, conservative (NO not the political party!!) policy that would have had us all living good lives while at the same time investing in future energy security. Well, our gas reserves are running out now. We are in for dark, difficult times because of this. Our past and current politicians did not live up to their responsibilities (and won't face the consequences either).

Then, as if the above is not enough, there is climate change. In this, politics of denial are useless - the laws of physics will trump them any time. Especially in this low-lying country, this water sodden piece of earth, living close to the lowest point of the Netherlands and next to Europe's biggest port, I'm vulnerable.

Finally, world demographics, and food production. This is where a rock meets a hard place with no room in between. Especially when increasing energy needs will continue to usurp food production.

The intersection of these four issues is what creates a true survival bomb. Pity the small children of today, they will inherit it all. I think if a person is young and healthy and relatively financially well off, they should be okay. But when you are old(er) like me and perhaps with health issues, and not financially well off...??? No, we won't be okay, not even close. I certainly won't be okay in my old days. My only option will be to become a burden on my son, without any means of making things better for myself. What a bitter pill after a lifetime of hard work!

The combination of all this scares me. For myself, for the the world.

CO2 emissions remain steady

This graph from the report "No growth in total global CO2 emissions in 2009", published yesterday by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), leaves me profoundly depressed.

It shows that in the industrialised countries, CO2 emissions went down thanks to the economic crisis. At the same time, it increased quite a bit in the developing economies. Result of this sum is a steady state over 2009 - this is so not the decline we had hoped for!

Every time I work myself up towards a little optimism, something like this comes and kicks my feet from under me.

We are not going to beat this thing, are we.

The hottest May on record.

Over here in the Netherlands we may be cooler than most of the summer world because of (relatively) local weather patterns, but most of the rest of the globe is cooking!

Some quotes from a NOAA article on this matter:

The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the warmest on record for May, March-May (Northern Hemisphere spring-Southern Hemisphere autumn), and the period January-May according to NOAA. Worldwide average land surface temperature for May and March-May was the warmest on record while the global ocean surface temperatures for both May and March-May were second warmest on record, behind 1998.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Global Highlights – May 2010
The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for May was the warmest on record, at 1.24°F (0.69°C) above the 20th century average of 58.6°F (14.8°C).
The global land surface temperature for May was 1.87°F (1.04°C) above the 20th century average of 52.0°F (11.1°C) — the warmest on record.
The May worldwide ocean temperature was the second warmest on record, behind 1998. The temperature anomaly was 0.99°F (0.55°C) above the 20th century average of 61.3°F (16.3°C).
Warm temperatures were present over most of the globe’s land areas. The warmest temperature anomalies occurred in eastern North America, eastern Brazil, Eastern Europe, southern Asia, eastern Russia, and equatorial Africa. The Chinese province of Yunnan had its warmest May since 1951. Numerous locations in Ontario, Canada had their warmest May on record.
Anomalously cool conditions were present across western North America, northern Argentina, interior Asia, and Western Europe. Germany had its coolest May since 1991 and its 12th coolest May on record.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Global Highlights – March-May 2010
The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the March-May season was 58.0°F (14.4°C), which is the warmest such period on record and 1.31°F (0.73°C) above the 20th century average of 56.7°F (13.7°C).
The worldwide land surface temperature for March-May was 2.20°F (1.22°C) above the 20th century average of 46.4 °F (8.1°C) — the warmest on record.
The worldwide ocean surface temperature was 0.99°F (0.55°C) above the 20th century average of 61.0°F (16.1°C) and the second warmest March-May on record, behind 1998.
Very warm temperatures were present across eastern and northern North America, northern Africa, Eastern Europe, southern Asia, and parts of Australia. Tasmania tied its warmest March-May period on record. The Northeastern U.S. also had its warmest March-May period on record. Conversely, cool temperatures enveloped the western U.S. and eastern Asia.
Western Europe was particularly dry for its spring season. For the United Kingdom, it was the driest spring since 1984, and the twelfth driest since the UK record began in 1910.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------



The CO2 levels are heading up, up and up. 350 ppm is considered the upper safe limit we could comfortably live with on this planet... but we passed that point long ago and don't look to be hitting a u-turn anytime soon.

I think our direction's pretty clear now. Still, there are enough fanatics irl and online wanting to have their cake and eat it too. I think we need to start ignoring them, stop giving them a platform to spout their nonsense. Their misinformation has been debunked time and again and yet again, enough of that! Our energy needs to go in a different direction.

What are we going to do?!?! Part of me wants to throw my hands up and say fuck that, I give up. Another part of me is looking at my (adult) son, at the children of my family and friends, and I simply can't give up. We just cannot leave them the world in this state.

It's too late to stop the change but maybe it will be possible to put the brakes on and make it survivable, at least. Maybe we can still make plans for coping with the changes.

We need to accept that really serious changes are coming and within our lifetime. We need to start thinking, talking, acting adaptation. And we need to act on this on a global scale. And we truly need to halt the upward trend of carbon emissions for this to have a snowball's chance in hell.

We need to understand this issue down to the bones, and we need to develop a sense of urgency.
Because it is urgent.

Another strike against Europe - whaling

European Commission lawyers have said that the EU must vote by consensus in the IWC, and if consensus cannot be achieved, the 25 EU member states – who form a substantial voting block in the 88-member IWC – must abstain.

Most EU nations will be against the deal, but it is possible that Denmark, with links to indigenous whaling communities in the Faroes and Greenland, might vote in favour, in which case Britain and other opponents would not be able to cast their votes against it, and the chances of the deal going through would soar.

The issue is still being negotiated between European Commission lawyers and member states, including Britain.

source

Because of an EU regulation it will be possible for commercial whaling to return. In fact, it seems inevitable that commercial whaling will return. Thanks to a horrible deal cooked up by politicians who have very conflicted interests.

This is a terrible shame and really should not be allowed to happen. If countries are required by law to vote by consensus in this issue, it will be another huge nail in the coffin of the great Euro experiment.

I am beyond furious and outraged. This is unacceptable, it simply must not happen!


UPDATE: We got lucky. The situation remains unchanged, for now. Watch this space, though. This situation has by no means been resolved, just shelved for a little while.

While most of my focus is on climate change

... because I believe this could end not only us as a species, but could wipe out most life on this planet, I have not forgotten about peak oil and the economic and social drama that will produce. A combination of the two events is hurtling towards us, and I think there is not much that can be done to divert it.

This presentation of peak oil gives a good summary/prediction of what lies ahead.

There are smart people working on transition towns and the like. I hope that will suffice, but I am doubtful. But, eternal optimist, I am learning more every year about backyard vegetable gardening!

2010, a long hot season?

The new El Niño is waking up and it promises to be a scorcher, second to the 1998 one.

So, over the next few months, there may be increased drought in Africa, India and Australia, heavier rainfall in South America and increased extremes in Britain, of warm and cold. It may make 2010 one of the hottest years on record.

An El Niño is defined by ocean surface temperatures rising by more than 0.5C above the average.

This El Niño is well beyond that, says the Climate Prediction Center of the US National Weather Service. "Sea surface temperatures remain +0.5 to +1.5 above average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean," the centre reported last week. "Observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate El Niño conditions will continue to intensify and are expected to last through the northern hemisphere winter of 2009-10."

source

The current global financial crisis

How we got here, and what to do about it.

A lecture well worth watching.

9,1 billion people by 2050

That's too many people.
Really
The earth simply cannot take care of so many people.


This is such an unpopular topic and touches the heart of our rights as living breathing reproducing organisms but we also have brains, intellect.
We can project, we can plan.
Tax incentives for smaller families, stuff like that.
We really should.



If there were only one thing I could teach the kids of today (and the decision-makers, the politicians too) so they understand it at a gut level, it would be the exponential function.